November 1, 2026 | Agriculture, Exports & Global Trade
JAKARTA, INDONESIA — Indonesia’s coffee export industry is showing encouraging signs of recovery as shipments from Sumatra increase following months of weather-related disruptions. However, reduced harvest expectations and limited supplies could continue to challenge exporters throughout the 2026/2027 marketing season.
Recent trade figures indicate that August brought a notable improvement in robusta coffee shipments, suggesting that harvesting, processing, and export activities are gradually returning to a more consistent pace.
Sumatra Records Stronger Monthly Export Performance
Indonesia’s principal coffee-producing region, Sumatra, exported approximately 514,538 bags of robusta coffee in August 2026, making it the strongest shipping month of the current marketing season.
Nevertheless, the volume was approximately 13.5% lower than in August 2025, highlighting the continuing impact of production difficulties.
From April through August 2026, cumulative robusta exports from Sumatra totaled approximately 1.89 million bags, representing a decline of nearly 17% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier.
Despite these figures, the improvement in monthly shipments offers a positive indication that export operations are recovering from earlier disruptions.
Heavy Rainfall Affects Coffee Production
Unfavorable weather has played a significant role in Indonesia’s lower coffee production outlook.
Prolonged rainfall across major growing areas in southern Sumatra and parts of Java affected flowering, pollination, and fruit development during crucial stages of the agricultural cycle.
Excessive moisture also complicated harvesting and drying activities, creating additional challenges for producers seeking to prepare coffee beans for international markets.
These conditions contributed to slower shipments during the opening months of the marketing year.
National Coffee Output Expected to Decline
According to projections from the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), Indonesia’s total coffee production could reach approximately 11.38 million bags in the 2026/2027 season.
This represents a decrease of around 8% from the previous season’s estimated production of 12.37 million bags.
Robusta coffee, which accounts for the majority of Indonesia’s output, is expected to decline to approximately 10 million bags. Meanwhile, arabica production is projected to reach around 1.38 million bags.
The forecast suggests that improvements in shipping activity may not be sufficient to offset the overall reduction in available coffee supplies.
International Buyers Monitor Indonesian Supply
Indonesia remains an important source of robusta coffee for buyers across Europe, North America, and Asia.
International roasters and trading companies rely on Indonesian coffee to diversify their sourcing strategies and maintain access to different producing regions.
With domestic production expected to decline, overseas buyers may face tighter purchasing conditions, particularly if unfavorable weather or transportation problems affect other producing countries.
USDA projections place Indonesia’s green coffee exports at approximately 7 million bags for the 2026/2027 season, around 11% below the previous year’s level.
Domestic consumption is also an important factor influencing how much coffee can be allocated to export markets.
Export Outlook Depends on Harvest Recovery
Industry attention is now shifting toward the performance of coffee shipments during the remaining months of 2026 and into early 2027.
More favorable weather, improved drying conditions, and consistent logistics operations could help exporters maintain the stronger shipment pace recorded in August.
However, Indonesia’s smaller expected harvest means that a recovery in monthly exports does not necessarily indicate an increase in total seasonal supply.
For Indonesian coffee farmers, exporters, and international buyers, the coming months will be important in determining whether improved trade activity can partially compensate for this year’s production challenges.
Despite the uncertain supply outlook, Indonesia is expected to retain its strategic position in the global coffee market, supported by established production regions, international trading relationships, and continued demand for Indonesian robusta.
Global Coffee Trade Outlook: Indonesia’s coffee exports are beginning to improve, but production constraints and weather-related risks remain important factors for international buyers to monitor.
